Opening-candle FVG retest (Nasdaq)
NAS100 · 1m chart · strategy s30_casper_fvg · 2 variations
Casper_SMC's 'one candle' idea: the 9:30 New York 5-minute candle sets the day's battlefield; when price breaks out of it with a small 1-minute gap and then pulls back, buy (or sell) the engulfing candle with a 5R target.
What it is about
Taught by Casper_SMC in two YouTube videos. The first 5-minute candle of the New York cash session (09:30) has more volume than any other, so its high and low are the day's key levels. Inside them, don't trade.
When the market breaks out on the 1-minute chart and leaves a fair value gap (a gap between the wicks of candles 1 and 3) with a close outside the range, that sets the direction for the day. The entry waits for price to come back into the gap and then for an engulfing candle: a candle closing beyond the body of the first candle that came back.
As taught (3R target), it made money only before costs. Our study of its losing trades found one fact that split winners from losers in both 2019-23 and 2024-26: the gap must be SMALL (at most 0.3 x the 1-minute ATR). On those days the pullback goes well beyond the gap before the market continues.
How it trades
NAS100, US trading days, mostly between 09:40 and 10:30 New York; closed the same day. About 5-7 trades a month.
- About one trade in three wins; each winner pays 5 times the risk, so long losing runs are normal (15-22 in a row is possible).
- Backtest at zero cost, 2019-23 / 2024-26 / 2026 so far: A +120.7R / +70.2R / +8.7R, B +128.0R / +78.2R / +13.4R. Every calendar year from 2019 to 2026 made money.
- It beat random entries with the same stop sizes in 100% of 20 runs, stayed profitable at three times our spread, all 120 nearby settings were profitable, and it gave the same trades on Pepperstone's own price data.
- Very sensitive to entry timing: entering just 1 minute late cut the 2024-26 result by about three quarters. It only works if the order goes in at the close of the engulfing candle (automatically).
- It only works on the Nasdaq 100: the same rules lose on the S&P 500, the Dow and gold.
- Stops are small (median ~29 points), so spread matters: check your broker's spread in the calculator; the small-gap rule was found by studying the past, so the paper account is the real test.
- A and B take the same trades except that B skips small engulfing candles.
Where it comes from
From two Casper_SMC videos ('One candle is ...' and 'The 1 minute scalping strategy') that Victor shared on 2026-10-25. The 09:30 range, the gap, the retest and the engulfing entry are his; the small-gap rule, the small-engulfing skip and the 5R target come from our research (picked on 2019-23, checked on 2024-26).
Main variation: s30-B ★ Main
The variations
Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.
A, but the engulfing candle must be a real push: at least 0.9 x the 1-minute ATR from high to low. The smallest fifth of engulfing candles are skipped.
s30-ASmall gaps only, 5RCasper's rules with the one change our loss study found: trade only when the day's first gap is small (at most 0.3 x the 1-minute ATR), and aim for 5R instead of 3R.
Variations side by side
Live result of all 2 together: −2.0R (zero cost).
| Live paper account (R, zero cost) | Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s30-B★ MainOpening-candle FVG retest | NAS100 | 1m | −1.0R | 1 | 0% | – | +206.2R | +0.40R | 8/8 | 5.6 | 34% | −20.7R |
| s30-AOpening-candle FVG retest | NAS100 | 1m | −1.0R | 1 | 0% | – | +191.0R | +0.29R | 8/8 | 7 | 31% | −31.9R |
Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.