Trendline break
NAS100, XAUUSD · 15m, 1H chart · strategy s15_trendline_break · 2 variations
Draws a falling trendline across the last two swing highs and buys when price closes above it, then follows the move with a trailing stop.
What it is about
Trendlines are one of the oldest chart tools. During a pullback, price makes lower and lower peaks; a line joining two of them shows where sellers have been in control. When price closes back above that line, the sellers have lost their grip and the bigger move (often up) may resume.
The strategy draws these lines automatically, without hindsight. A peak (swing high) only counts once five candles on each side are lower, so it is only known five candles later; the line is drawn from that moment on.
There is no fixed target. Once a trade is 1R in profit (R = the amount risked) the stop follows price 1R behind its best level. Many trades end around break-even or a small gain, and the money comes from the occasional long run.
How it trades
NAS100 version: 15-minute candles at any hour the index CFD trades (nearly 23 hours a day, busiest during the New York session 09:30-16:00), about 30 trades a month. Gold version: 1-hour candles, about 4 trades a month. Trades last from minutes to a few days.
- Roughly half the trades win (51% on NAS100, 54% on gold), but many winners are small because the 1R trailing stop locks in modest gains.
- NAS100 version, backtest 2019-today: 2,851 trades, +373.4R at zero cost, largest drawdown about 27.2R.
- Gold version, backtest 2018-today: 450 trades, +135.1R, largest drawdown about 7.8R.
- Flat stretches happen: NAS100 made +13.7R in 2022, +9.9R in 2023 and is +6.9R for 2026 so far; gold lost 2.7R in 2021.
- The NAS100 version has gone mostly sideways in recent years; research found that in 2026 breakouts on NAS100 followed through less often than before.
- Sensitive to the data feed: on Pepperstone data (the broker feed used for paper trading) the NAS100 version made far less than on Dukascopy data from July 2024 to October 2026, with only half the signals identical. It is the variation to watch.
- Buys only, so it relies on markets that drift up over time; sells lost money everywhere.
- The timeframe matters: the same rules on gold 15-minute candles lost money.
- Without the minimum-stop guard, an early test showed a huge fake profit from tiny stops; the guard is essential.
Where it comes from
A classic chart-reading technique, automated. Tested in October 2026: 97% of the NAS100 buy settings tried made money in the train period. Train = 2018/2019-2023, test = 2024 to Oct 2026.
Main variation: s15-B ★ Main
The variations
Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.
Gold on 1-hour candles, with the stop below the last confirmed swing low instead of a fixed ATR distance, and only when gold's daily trend is up. Gold on 15-minute candles lost money, so the slower chart and the trend filter are what make it work.
s15-ANAS100, 15-minuteThe default settings: 15-minute NAS100 chart, a stop 2 ATR below the entry and no trend filter. Many trades per month, each with a small edge.
Variations side by side
Live result of all 2 together: −7.1R (zero cost).
| Live paper account (R, zero cost) | Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s15-B★ MainTrendline break | XAUUSD | 1H | – | 0 | – | – | +135.1R | +0.30R | 8/9 | 4.3 | 54% | −7.8R |
| s15-ATrendline break | NAS100 | 15m | −7.1R | 15 | 33% | – | +373.4R | +0.13R | 8/8 | 30.6 | 51% | −27.2R |
Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.