Dashboard / Turn of the month / pre-holiday
s11-C Nasdaq, last day to 4th day
NAS100 · D chart · a variation of Turn of the Month & Pre-Holiday · paper account since 2026-10-19
A's rules unchanged on the Nasdaq 100, where the turn-of-the-month effect is best known from stock markets.
Backtest 2019-today: 68 trades, 62% wins, +10.0R, largest drop 2.4R. About even between 2019-23 (+4.9R) and 2024-26 (+5.1R); no trades in 2022, when the index was below its 200-day average.
The rules it shares with every variation are on the strategy page.
| Setting | Strategy default | s11-C (this) | s11-D (main) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar event Which calendar moment is traded: the turn of the month or the day before a holiday. | turn_of_month | turn_of_month | pre_holiday |
| Exit day Sell at the close of this trading day of the new month (pre-holiday: this many trading days after the entry). | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Trend filter Trade only above the 200-day average (SMA200), or with no trend filter. | sma200 | sma200 | none |
| Stop distance (ATR) How far below the entry the safety stop sits, in multiples of the average daily range. | 2 | 2 | 1 |
All 19 settings of s11-C
Calendar event = turn_of_monthDays before month-end = 1Exit day = 4Trend filter = sma200Stop distance (ATR) = 2target r = offtrail at r = offtrail by r = 1tz = America/New_Yorktp r = 2use be = nobe trigger r = 1.5sl atr mult = 0stop steps = []trail start r = offtrail dist r = 1use tp = nopartial r = offpartial frac = 0.5Balance (R)
Calendar
Open trades
| Side | Signal (UTC) | Entry | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Buy | 2026-10-29 22:00 | 28,380.20 | 27,173.44 | no fixed target |
Closed trades
Last event: open at 2026-10-30 22:01 UTC · all events
| Year | Trades | Win % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | 67% | +0.2R |
| 2020 | 11 | 73% | +3.8R |
| 2021 | 12 | 67% | +1.3R |
| 2023 | 12 | 33% | −0.3R |
| 2024 | 12 | 58% | +3.6R |
| 2025 | 10 | 70% | −0.3R |
| 2026 | 8 | 75% | +1.8R |
Dukascopy data until 2026-10-05, in R at zero cost (R = the amount risked on a trade). Your own spread, commission, account and risk go in the Money calculator tab. Settings were partly chosen by looking at this history, so the live account is the real test.
Turn the backtest's R into money for your own account: starting balance, risk per trade (fixed or compounding) and your broker's costs. Nothing else on the site uses money.
Balance after each trade
| Year | Trades | R before costs | R after costs | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | +0.2R | +0.1R | +$14 | +0.1% |
| 2020 | 11 | +3.8R | +3.7R | +$374 | +3.7% |
| 2021 | 12 | +1.3R | +1.3R | +$129 | +1.2% |
| 2023 | 12 | −0.3R | −0.4R | −$35 | −0.3% |
| 2024 | 12 | +3.6R | +3.6R | +$359 | +3.4% |
| 2025 | 10 | −0.3R | −0.3R | −$29 | −0.3% |
| 2026 | 8 | +1.8R | +1.8R | +$179 | +1.7% |
Replays the backtest trades with raw costs: 1.00 spread. A trade's cost in R = cost ÷ its stop distance, so tight stops pay more R. Risk is set when a trade opens; trades can overlap, like the backtest. Year = the year the trade opened (UTC); return = profit ÷ the balance at the year's first trade. Not included: swap / overnight financing, taxes. Past results, not a forecast.
This variation's backtest trades on a prop firm account: pick a firm, an account size, a period and your risk per trade. Costs come from the Money calculator tab (now: raw costs: 1.00 spread).
FTMO · 2-Step Challenge: Target 10% then 5% · max loss 10% fixed · daily loss 5% · min 4 trading days · 80% split · first payout after 14 days · $96 fee · fee refunded with payout #1.
Not simulated: Fees are EUR (€89-€1,080) at ~1.08 USD. Funded Standard account: no orders 2 min around major news, no holding over weekends (Swing account exempt).
Rules checked against the firm's site on 2026-10-28; firms change them often.
Net cash over time (payouts − fees)
Every account (1)
| # | Bought | Ended | Result | Trades | Time to pass | Payouts | Received | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2019-10-30 | – | Still in evaluation | 68 | – | 0 | $0 | −$96 |
Replays this variation's backtest trades (raw costs: 1.00 spread) from 2019-10-30 to 2026-10-05, risking a fixed 0.5% of the account size per trade. A blown account is replaced at once; payouts are taken as soon as the rules allow. Floating losses use each trade's worst point on its own (open trades are not added together); the trading day runs 17:00 to 17:00 New York. Futures firms are simulated with the CFD backtest in R. Past results, not a forecast.