Fair price breaks

XAUUSD · 1m chart · strategy s35_fair_price · 3 variations

The 09:29 close sets a fair price. In the first half hour of New York, trade strong closes that break away from it.

What it is about

The last close before the New York open is taken as the fair price. A move away from it in the first minutes often keeps going.

The model only takes the first breaks of the day, and only the ones moving away from the fair price.

How it trades

Chart & market

Gold, 1-minute candles.

Fair price

The close of the 09:29 New York candle.

Break

From 09:30, a close through the high or low of the previous 5 candles. Breaks both ways are counted through the day.

Entry

At the close of the break candle, only among the first 5 breaks of the day, before 10:00, and only when the break moves away from the fair price.

Exit

Stop at the far end of the break candle, at least 0.11% of the price away. Target 3R. Flat at the last candle before 16:00 New York. One trade at a time.

09:30-10:00 New York, about 35 trades a month.

What to expect

About 3 trades in 10 win. Winners are about 3R, losers about -1R.
Backtest 2018-today (zero cost): 3,657 trades, +373.7R, largest drop 41R. Every year made money.
The longest losing run in the backtest was 20 trades.

Risks and caveats

The stop is only about 11 raw spreads, so the raw spread takes about 0.09R of the +0.10R a trade. Check the calculator's cost presets.
Entries must be fast: 1-2 minutes late still works, 3 minutes late lost 7.3R in 2024-26.
The creator's own stop and target did not work; this version changes both, and the first 5 breaks rule was chosen with both periods visible.

Where it comes from

The fair price idea comes from Esteban (RosalTrading), who credits JJ Simon (2026-10-31). The stop, target and timing come from our testing.

Main variation: s35-C ★ Main

Live result

+3.0R

1 closed · 0 open · zero cost

Backtest total

+315.4R

2,028 trades · +0.16R a trade · win 30%

Backtest max drawdown

−23.9R

total ÷ drawdown 13.2

Years won

9/9

19.2 trades / month

Backtest R per year (zero cost), s35-C

The variations

Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.

s35-CGold, first half hour, with the 1-hour trend★ Main

The same model, only on the side of the 1-hour EMA 20.

s35-AGold, first half hour of New York

Close through the last 5 candles away from the 09:29 close, first 5 breaks, before 10:00. Target 3R.

s35-BGold, first half hour, with the 15-minute trend

The same model, only on the side of the 15-minute EMA 20. Trades against it made almost nothing in either period.

Variations side by side

Live result of all 3 together: +9.0R (zero cost).

			Live paper account (R, zero cost)				Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost)

s35-C★ MainFair price breaks	XAUUSD	1m	+3.0R	1	100%	–	+315.4R	+0.16R	9/9	19.2	30%	−23.9R
s35-AFair price breaks	XAUUSD	1m	+3.0R	1	100%	–	+373.6R	+0.10R	9/9	34.5	29%	−41.0R
s35-BFair price breaks	XAUUSD	1m	+3.0R	1	100%	–	+322.0R	+0.15R	9/9	20.7	30%	−27.9R

Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.