Dave's 9am TBR (Nasdaq)
NAS100 · 1m chart · strategy s26_dave_tbr · 8 variations
Dave (DCFX)'s time-based range: once an hourly candle closes outside the 9am New York hour's range, trade the pullback back into that range, out the same day.
What it is about
Taught by Dave (DCFX) in 'The Masterclass Crash Course'. The 9am New York hour builds a range (TBR = time-based range) as the US session gets going. If an hourly candle then CLOSES outside it, the break counts; a wick through it does not.
After a valid break, price often comes back into the range before moving on. The trade waits for that pullback with a limit order inside the range and a stop on the far side, so the risk is known before the trade starts.
Tested on seven markets and four range hours with about 430,000 settings: only the Nasdaq 100's 9am range held up, which matches where Dave trades it.
How it trades
NAS100, US trading days. Entries between 11:00 and 14:00 New York, closed the same day. About 3 trades a month (A, B, D) or 4-5 (C).
- A and B win about half the time; C wins about three times out of four, with smaller winners.
- Backtest at zero cost, 2019-23 / 2024-26: A +47.2R / +21.4R, B +41.8R / +21.8R, C +33.8R / +14.9R; 2026 so far +10.5R (A, B) and +4.2R (C).
- Small drawdowns: the largest drop was 10R or less for every version, and no calendar year lost money from 2019 to 2026.
- It is a small earner: roughly 6-12R a year.
- Few trades, so the totals rest on about 30-55 trades a year.
- Only the Nasdaq version works: the same rules lose on gold, silver, the S&P 500 and currency pairs.
- Versions that waited longer for the break or held trades longer looked best in 2019-23 and then failed, so the exact rules matter.
- A, B and C trade the same days; they are three ways to manage one idea.
Where it comes from
From the five-lecture 'Masterclass Crash Course' by Dave (DCFX), which Victor shared on 2026-10-21. The TBR rules (hourly close validation, the 30 / 50 / 70% levels) are his; the 2:00 pm entry cut-off, the 1.5R and trailing exits were chosen in research on 2019-2023 and checked on 2024-2026.
Main variation: s26-G ★ Main
The variations
Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.
NAS100 · 1m
s26-AHalfway entry, 1.5R targetDave's rules with the limit halfway into the range and a fixed 1.5R target: the best balance of money and drawdown in testing.
s26-BHalfway entry, break-even + trailSame entries, but no fixed target: break-even at +1.5R, then the stop trails 1R behind the best price from +2R, so the rare trend days can run until 16:00.
s26-C30% entry, target the range edge (~76% wins)Dave's high-win-rate way: enter 30% into the range and take profit when price gets back to the edge that broke. Small, frequent winners.
s26-DHalfway entry, 1R targetA with a 1R target: Dave's beginner idea of taking a one-to-one. More wins, smaller ones.
s26-EHalfway entry, stop at 80%, target the range edgeThe stop sits 80% of the way across the range instead of at its far side: once the range has been validated, price rarely goes all the way back, so the last 20% of the stop is mostly wasted risk. The target is the range edge that broke, about 1.7 times the risk.
s26-FHalfway entry, stop at 90%, target the range edgeLike E with the stop 90% of the way across: a little more room, a smaller target (about 1.25 times the risk) and a higher win rate.
s26-HNAS100 · 1m
Variations side by side
Live result of all 8 together: 0.0R (zero cost).
| Live paper account (R, zero cost) | Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s26-G★ MainDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +107.2R | +0.26R | 8/8 | 4.4 | 70% | −8.7R |
| s26-ADave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +68.6R | +0.24R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 52% | −8.3R |
| s26-BDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +63.6R | +0.22R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 44% | −8.3R |
| s26-CDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +48.6R | +0.12R | 8/8 | 4.4 | 76% | −6.2R |
| s26-DDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +56.6R | +0.20R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 60% | −7.1R |
| s26-EDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +92.4R | +0.33R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 50% | −10.0R |
| s26-FDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +72.5R | +0.26R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 55% | −9.1R |
| s26-HDave's 9am TBR | NAS100 | 1m | – | 0 | – | – | +85.3R | +0.30R | 8/8 | 3.1 | 50% | −8.8R |
Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.