Opening range + EMA 20 pullback

US500 · 2m chart · strategy s22_orb_ema_pullback · 2 variations

Waits for the S&P 500 to break out of its first 30 minutes of trading, then joins the move on the first pullback to a 20-candle average on a 2-minute chart.

What it is about

The opening range is the high and low of the first 30 minutes after the 09:30 New York stock-market open. A decisive close outside that range often sets the direction for the rest of the day.

Instead of chasing the breakout, the strategy waits for price to dip back to its EMA 20 (an average of the last 20 two-minute candles, weighted to the most recent) and bounce off it, then enters with the stop just beyond the dip. If price falls back inside the opening range first, the breakout has failed and the day is skipped.

The target is a fixed 3R (R = the amount risked). The video it came from aimed for the day's high, which lost money in testing; a fixed target turned it into a small but steady earner on the S&P 500.

How it trades

Chart & market

US500 (the S&P 500 index CFD) on 2-minute candles. Buys and sells.

Setup

Opening range = high and low of 09:30-10:00 New York. The first 10-minute close outside it (a 2-minute candle closing at 10:10, 10:20 and so on) sets the day's direction: above = buys only, below = sells only.

Entry

The first 2-minute candle that touches the EMA 20 (its low reaches it, for buys) and closes back on the trade side: enter at its close, before 15:00 New York. If a 2-minute candle closes back inside the range first, there is no trade that day.

Stop loss

The pullback extreme: the lowest low from the breakout candle to the entry candle (highest high for sells). Skipped if the stop is under 5 points (about 10 x the spread).

Exit

Take profit at 3R; otherwise closed at the 16:00 close (13:00 on US early-close days). If a candle touches the stop, the stop counts first.

Filters

One trade per day.

US500 during the New York cash session: entries from about 10:10 until 15:00 (12:00 in the morning-only version), always flat by 16:00. About 4 to 5 trades a month.

What to expect

A little under half the trades win (43% for the default, 45% for the morning version).
Default, backtest 2018-today at zero cost: 505 trades, +143.3R, largest drawdown about 9.4R, positive in all 9 years.
Small, steady gains: some years barely move (2019 +2.2R) and the best was 2022 (+37.0R).
Trades last from minutes to the rest of the session; nothing is held overnight.

Risks and caveats

Small profits compared with the other strategies; it is in the lineup because it is steady and trades a market the others barely touch.
Works on one market only: on NAS100 only about half the settings held up in 2024-26, and gold and oil failed.
Stops can be as small as 5 points, so spread and slippage matter; the results are before both, so check your broker's spread in the calculator.
The rules exactly as shown in the video (target = the day's high) lost money on every market tested.

Where it comes from

From a trading video Victor shared on 2026-10-18 (futures day trading on 2-minute charts). About 3,500 settings were tested on NAS100, US500, gold and oil; on US500 all 8 settings in the chosen family (pullback stop, cancel when back inside the range, minimum stop, 2R or 3R target) made money in both 2018-23 and 2024-26.

Main variation: s22-A ★ Main

Live result

−4.0R

4 closed · 0 open · zero cost

Backtest total

+143.3R

505 trades · +0.28R a trade · win 43%

Backtest max drawdown

−9.4R

total ÷ drawdown 15.3

Years won

9/9

4.8 trades / month

Backtest R per year (zero cost), s22-A

The variations

Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.

s22-AUS500, until 15:00, 3R★ Main

The default: pullback entries allowed until 15:00 New York, with a 3R target. More time to find a setup and bigger winners.

s22-BUS500, morning only, 2R

Entries only until 12:00 New York and a closer 2R target. Morning pullbacks come soon after the breakout, while it is still fresh, and the closer target is reached more often.

Variations side by side

Live result of all 2 together: −8.0R (zero cost).

			Live paper account (R, zero cost)				Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost)

s22-A★ MainOpening range + EMA-20 pullback	US500	2m	−4.0R	4	0%	–	+143.3R	+0.28R	9/9	4.8	43%	−9.4R
s22-BOpening range + EMA-20 pullback	US500	2m	−4.0R	4	0%	–	+105.0R	+0.25R	9/9	4.1	45%	−8.8R

Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.