Gap-and-go at the New York open
NAS100, US500 · 5m chart · strategy s17_gap_and_go · 5 variations
Trades NAS100 right after the 09:30 New York open in the direction of the opening gap (or, in one version, of the first candle versus a short average), with a tight stop and a 10R target.
What it is about
The US stock market opens at 09:30 New York time. Overnight news often makes the index open well above or below the previous day's 16:00 close: that jump is a gap. When the first five minutes after the open keep moving the same way as the gap, the day often carries on in that direction ('gap and go'), as traders who missed the move pile in.
The stop is tight, only a quarter of the first candle's range, and the target is 10R (R = the amount risked). On most days the trade is stopped quickly for a small loss; on a strong one-way 'trend day' it can run ten times the risk before the 16:00 close.
One version (C), taken from a video, drops the gap: every day it simply checks whether the first 5-minute candle closed above or below a fast 12-candle average and trades that way.
How it trades
At most once a day, at 09:35 New York time, and always flat by 16:00 (no overnight positions). The gap versions trade only on gap days, about 4 to 5 times a month; version C trades almost every day, about 20 times a month.
- Wins are rare: 18% for the default gap version, 22% for version C. Strings of 15 to 25 losses in a row are normal.
- Default gap version, backtest 2019-today at zero cost: 424 trades, +395.4R, largest drawdown about 23.0R; all 8 years positive (2023 the weakest, +10.0R).
- Version C on NAS100: 1,568 trades, +465.2R, largest drawdown about 24.2R, every year positive.
- Most losing trades are over within minutes; winners can take most of the session to reach 10R.
- The profit depends on a small number of strong trend days each year; a year with few of them (like 2023) ends around break-even.
- Tight stops placed right after the open, when prices jump around and spreads can widen: real fills may be worse than simulated.
- The US500 copy of version C is much bumpier: a 60.5R largest drawdown and losing years in 2020 (−11.2R) and 2024 (−18.1R).
- Version C has weakened: 2019-23 +346.0R vs 2024 to Oct 2026 +119.2R on NAS100.
Where it comes from
A classic day-trading pattern (gap-and-go) built with Victor's tight-stop module in October 2026; version C comes from a video Victor sent. Version C's direction rule was checked against 20 runs with random directions (their median made far less than C in both periods), so the direction choice adds real value. Train = 2019-2023, test = 2024 to Oct 2026.
Main variation: s17-C ★ Main
The variations
Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.
No gap needed: every day the first 5-minute candle's close versus the 5-minute EMA 12 sets the direction, and the stop is 2 x the 5-minute ATR. This turns a few-times-a-month setup into a daily one; on gap days it usually takes the same trade as A.
s17-AGap days, quarter stop, 10RThe default: trade only when the market gaps at least 0.25 daily ATR and the first candle agrees, with the tight quarter-candle stop and a 10R target.
s17-BGap days, full-candle stopSame gap trades, but the stop goes at the first candle's opposite end (four times wider). It is the textbook stop: fewer trades get shaken out by noise, but each 10R winner needs a much bigger move.
s17-C-US500Every day, EMA 12, S&P 500Version C's exact rules on US500 (the S&P 500 index) instead of NAS100. Added in October 2026 when the lineup was tested on new markets, to spread the idea across a second index.
s17-DEvery day, EMA 12, 1 ATR stop + 3R trailVersion C's entry (first 5-minute close versus the EMA 12, every day) with the trailing exit from a second video on the same rule: a 1 x ATR stop, no fixed target, and once the trade is 3R up the stop follows 3R behind the best price. Picked from 33 stop / trail / target combinations; tight trails (1R) lost money.
Variations side by side
Live result of all 5 together: −24.8R (zero cost).
| Live paper account (R, zero cost) | Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s17-C★ MainGap-and-go at the New York open | NAS100 | 5m | −5.0R | 5 | 0% | – | +465.2R | +0.30R | 8/8 | 16.8 | 23% | −24.2R |
| s17-AGap-and-go at the New York open | NAS100 | 5m | −3.0R | 3 | 0% | – | +395.4R | +0.93R | 8/8 | 4.6 | 18% | −23.0R |
| s17-BGap-and-go at the New York open | NAS100 | 5m | −3.0R | 3 | 0% | – | +168.6R | +0.39R | 8/8 | 4.7 | 30% | −20.6R |
| s17-C-US500Gap-and-go at the New York open | US500 | 5m | −6.8R | 10 | 10% | – | +498.6R | +0.26R | 7/9 | 18.4 | 22% | −60.5R |
| s17-DGap-and-go at the New York open | NAS100 | 5m | −7.0R | 7 | 0% | – | +644.4R | +0.36R | 8/8 | 19.2 | 29% | −34.1R |
Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.