Opening Range Breakout (Nasdaq)
NAS100 · 5m chart · strategy s06_orb15_nas100 · 3 variations
Marks a price range around the New York stock open on the Nasdaq 100 (the first 15 minutes, or the half hour before the open) and trades the first 5-minute close outside it.
What it is about
The US stock market opens at 09:30 New York time. The first minutes bring a flood of orders, and the high and low of the first 15 minutes form the 'opening range'. A clear break out of that range often shows which side, buyers or sellers, is in control for the day, and the move frequently continues.
The stop goes on the other side of the range. If the breakout was false and price runs back through the whole range, the idea was wrong and the loss is limited. Once the trade is in profit, a trailing stop (a stop-loss that follows price) locks part of it in, and anything still open is closed before the end of the session.
The opening range breakout is one of the oldest and most widely published day-trading methods. It was tested here with its published settings first, then with a trailing exit.
How it trades
NAS100, US trading days only. Entries from 09:45 (A, B) or 09:30 (C), and every trade is closed by 16:00, so nothing is held overnight. About 20 trades a month for A and C, 11 for B. A typical trade lasts 3-4 hours.
- Slightly more than half the trades win (53% A, 55% B). Winners and losers are about the same size (average win 0.93R, average loss 0.88R), so the edge per trade is small.
- Many trades: about 20 a month for A, 11 for B.
- Losing streaks of up to 8 (A) or 6 (B) trades in a row in the backtest.
- Largest drop from a peak: 21.4R (A) and 11.1R (B). Backtest 2019-today at zero cost: +154.4R (A) and +133.4R (B).
- 2026 has been close to flat so far: +3.1R for A, +4.0R for B.
- C works differently: about 28% wins with 5R winners, so expect losing streaks of up to 18 trades in a row. Backtest: 2019-23 +251.0R, 2024-26 +157.7R, largest drop 25.0R, every year positive.
- The profit per trade is thin, so it is sensitive to trading costs. The results are at zero cost: check your broker's spread in the calculator. A wide spread or slippage at the open would take a real bite.
- Results in 2026 are nearly flat. The edge may be weakening as the method is so well known.
- Variation B is buys only on an index that rose for most of the test years.
- Nasdaq data starts in 2019, so the history is shorter than for gold.
- The backtest also trades half-days and gap days. Those were a small net loser (37 days, -7.5R) and are kept so the results stay honest.
- C and s17's EMA versions all trade the 09:30 open on NAS100 (daily correlation +0.69 with s17-C): on a bad opening day they lose together.
Where it comes from
A classic, freely published day-trading strategy (the 15-minute opening range breakout). It was tested on the Nasdaq 100: 2019-2023 (the 'train' period, used to choose settings) and 2024-2026 (the 'test' period). The trailing exit replaced the original 2R target, which lost money in 2026.
Main variation: s06-C ★ Main
The variations
Each variation is the same strategy with a different approach, trading its own paper account. Click one to see exactly what it changes.
From a video Victor shared on 2026-10-20 ('mark the high and low before New York opens, buy or sell the first 5-minute close outside it, stop at the far end of that candle'). The range is 09:00-09:30, the stop is the breakout candle's other end, and the target is 5R. Tested with 5 range start times, both stop types and many exits: 09:00 was the best start, and every exit from 4R up was positive in every year.
s06-ABoth directions, first hourThe base rules: buys and sells, and the breakout must happen within an hour of the range ending. A breakout soon after the open is when the opening order flow is strongest, and a late drift out of the range says less.
s06-BBuys only, any timeTakes only upside breakouts, and takes them whenever they come during the session. The Nasdaq rose over most of the period, and upside breaks were the more reliable side.
Variations side by side
Live result of all 3 together: −10.8R (zero cost).
| Live paper account (R, zero cost) | Backtest 2018 – today (R, zero cost) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s06-C★ MainNew York opening range breakout | NAS100 | 5m | −7.0R | 8 | 13% | – | +408.7R | +0.20R | 8/8 | 21.4 | 28% | −25.0R |
| s06-ANew York opening range breakout | NAS100 | 5m | −2.7R | 9 | 44% | – | +154.4R | +0.08R | 7/8 | 20 | 53% | −21.4R |
| s06-BNew York opening range breakout | NAS100 | 5m | −1.1R | 7 | 57% | – | +133.4R | +0.13R | 8/8 | 11.2 | 55% | −11.1R |
Main = the variation with the most backtest R per R of max drawdown (2018 – today, zero cost). It is picked on that history, so the live accounts are the real test.